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The
Hunt is on for Osama bin Laden
by
Stanley A. Weiss and Thomas G. McInerney
WASHINGTON
The United States wants terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden, dead-or
alive. The missile attacks on Mr. bin Laden's bases in Afghanistan represent
the "dead" approach, regardless of whether the goal was bin
Laden himself or his command and control. Diplomacy, such as efforts to
convince the Taliban, the fundamentalist Islamic movement that controls
90 percent of Afghanistan, to turn over bin Laden, represents the "alive"
approach.
It is hard to see either bearing much fruit. And in the meantime, both
efforts exact a high cost on U.S. global influence and prestige.
Take the "dead" approach. It is exceedingly difficult to kill
an individual through bombings-just ask Saddam Hussein or Libyan leader
Moarnrnar Gadhafi Even if the White House would agree to repeal the executive
order ban-fling assassination of foreigners, the United States is not
believed to have any assets in place to cany out such a murderous assignment
Meanwhile, world condemnation of the U.S. will grow in the wake of any
prolonged bombing campaign, which is required if America is to be taken
seriously.
The "alive" approach will probably fare even worse. A grand
jury in New York has handed down an indictment against Mr. bin Laden,
accusing him of terrorist acts against the United States. But there is
no indication that the Taliban will turn over Mr. bin Laden to the United
States-or even expel him-in exchange for diplomatic recognition or a United
Nations seat. The Taliban have failed to keep promises made to European
governments and U.N. agencies to stop the opium trade, ease restrictions
on basic rights for women, or form a broad-based government in Afghanistan.
If the United States pursues this strategy instead of further military
action, it will look weak and Mr. bin Laden will undertake future terrorist
attacks.
There is another option. A different form of pressure can be used against
the Taliban to get them to turn over Mr. bin Laden to the United States
or at least expel him from Afghanistan. The United States should inform
the rebel Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar that unless Mr. bin Laden
is delivered in 30 days, America and its allies will offer assistance
to the government of Burhanuddin Rabbani, recognized by the United Nations
as the legitimate president of Afghanistan.
The action would be taken at the request of Afghanistan's legal government,
so that no violation of international law could be alleged. And, since
both the govemment forces and the Taliban are Muslims, America's move
could not be seen as anti-Islamic. The four other permanent members of
the U.N. Security Council-Russia, Prance, China and the U.K.-could be
expected to approve this anti-terrorist action. And, no doubt, Uzbekistan,
Tajikistan, Turkey and even Iran would offer military support of their
own to Afghanistan's legitimate government. Only the Taliban's main supporter,
Pakistan, and its Arab financial backers would object.
It is probable that the Taliban would promptly deliver Mr. bin Laden,
rather than risk military defeat. Alternatively, he would become too hot
to handle and be asked to leave. But to where? Iran is one possibility,
but Mr bin Laden, an ultra-orthodox Sunni Muslim, is a religious enemy
of Iranian Shiites. And Afghanistan has reportedly killed thousands of
Shiite civilians and 14 Iranian diplomats and a journalist. Pakistan would
not harbor him. The unintended consequence of its support of the Taliban
is a 'Talibanizing" trend in their own country, a secular Muslim
nation. If Mr. bin Laden manages to find refuge in Lebanon, Syria, Sudan,
or Libya his effectiveness as the big-man of terrorism would be greatly
weakened.
This strategy is not without risks. Already in this century, Britain and
the Soviet Union suffered crushing military defeat in the hills and mountains
of Afghanistan. But the United States and its allies need not and should
not become involved on the ground. Military supplies to the legitimate
government in Afghanistan, coupled with missile and air support should
be enough to turn the tables on the Taliban.
If America is serious about wanting to bring in Mr. bin Laden, "dead
or alive," it clearly can be done. But he won't be gotten dead or
alive unless the United States is prepared to employ all of the power
at its disposal.
Stanley
A. Weiss is founder and chairman of Business Executives for National Security.
The views he expresses are his own. Lt.
General Thomas G. Mclnerney (USAF ret.) is former president and CEO of
Business Executives for National Security.
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