SPEAKING FREELY
An Early Guide to Indonesia's Next President
by Stanley A. Weiss

BALI - For the first time, the voters of Indonesia, with the world's largest Muslim population, will choose their own president. But in the mystical world of Indonesia, even next year's direct election is not as simple as it seems.
Under the new election law, only parties that receive more than 5 percent of the vote in April's parliamentary election can field a presidential candidate in the general election several months later. To win the presidency, a candidate must receive a majority of the national vote and more than 20 percent of the vote in at least half of Indonesia's 30 provinces - in effect ruling out all but the two major parties.
How to make sense of it all? And what will the outcome mean for the future of this democracy-in-progress?

Here are five signs to watch for.

A mother and child reunion?
The country's largest party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, hopes President Megawati Sukarnoputri can hold on to power. But accused of betraying the cause of reform in favor of business and military interests, Ibu Mega ("Mother Mega") has lost the love of her student and activist supporters.

The election is still Megawati's to lose. Watch for whether she continues to side with the entrenched elite or wins back her disenchanted supporters by returning to her reformasi roots.

A 'go straight to jail' card for Tanjung?
It was once a foregone conclusion that Golkar, Indonesia's second-largest party and the political vehicle of the former Suharto dictator-ship, would nominate its powerful boss, Akbar Tanjung. But convicted of corruption, he now awaits his appeal to the Supreme Court.

A legal victory for Tanjung would clear the path to his party's nomination. But electoral victory is unlikely to follow; the public is fed up with corruption, of which Tanjung is now the poster child.

A new face for Golkar?
A Supreme Court ruling against Tanjung would send him straight to jail and force Golkar to find a new standard bearer. Among the 19 contenders are three to watch.

General Wiranto, the last armed forces chief under Suharto, hopes Indonesians will overlook past human rights abuses. Now a crooner of love songs, "the singing general" serenades voters as the law-and-order strongman who would save the nation.

Coordinating Minister of People's Welfare Yusuf Kalla is widely admired for ending Muslim-Christian warfare in the Malukus, but he is not a native of Java, home to two-thirds of Indonesian voters.

In contrast, the governor of the ancient city of Yogyakarta, Sultan Hamengku Buwono X, is revered on the island as the last of the Java kings, but has little appeal in the provinces. Polls show a geographically balanced Sultan-Kalla ticket crushing Megawati.

An Islamic kingmaker?
Neither Megawati nor Golkar is expected to win an outright majority in the first round of voting. Barring an unlikely Megawati-Golkar alliance that would lock up the election, the race would be on to forge a winning coalition in the run-off. Three smaller Islamic-oriented parties may emerge as potential kingmakers.

Former (impeached) president Abdurrahman Wahid remains the leader of the National Awakening Party and retains the support of the 40-million-member Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), the country's largest Muslim socio-political organization.

Amien Rais, chairman of the People's Consultative Assembly and leader of the National Mandate Party, has the support of the second largest Muslim organization, the 30 million-member Muhammadiyah. Watch for whether NU and Muhammadiyah can overcome old rivalries and unite behind a single Islamic candidate.

Hamzah Haz, the current vice president and leader of the largest Muslim political party, the United Development Party, says he would not spurn offers of an Islamic coalition.

Wild cards?
After two major terrorist attacks in as many years, unscrupulous politicians such as Rais and Haz who have flirted with Islamic radicals are finished in moderate Indonesia. Indeed, the two major parties may yet find their winning ticket in some unusual places.

If Megawati dumps Haz, watch retired army general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, now coordinating minister for political and security affairs, popular for overseeing the military crackdown on the rebellious Aceh province. His selection as vice president would be a signal that Megawati intends to continue deferring to the military establishment.

Golkar may find its salvation in Nurcholish Madjid, the moderate Muslim scholar beloved by Indonesians. Although he declined to seek the Golkar presidential nomination, he would make a popular running mate and useful cover should a Golkar administration and its military allies intensify the crackdown on Islamic militants.

Will Mother Mega keep her children in line? Will Tanjung stay out of jail? Will the Sultan and Kalla be the unbeatable duo? Will the Islamic parties anoint the winner? Will wild cards shake up the system?
One outcome is certain. Five years removed from the dictatorship that ruled this nation for three decades, the competition itself is a healthy sign that Indonesia is taking another step toward being the world's third-largest democracy.

And that is something to watch - and cheer.