WASHINGTON — Reading about the deepening crisis in Indonesia alarmed and confused me, so I asked a Javanese friend to help me understand events in his important country. I just received his letter, which says it best:

You asked me to tell you what is happening in Java, and therefore Indonesia. The truth is, nobody knows. It can best be summed up by a recent headline in The Jakarta Post, "Soothsayers Predict Gloom."

As in the shadow play "Wayang Kulit," Javanese political philosophy requires a polarity of good and evil, an incessant rhythm of change from times of chaos — periods of unrest, rebellion and turbulence — to times of peace under a ratu adil, a just king.

And there is no denying that Java is going through crazy times. Harmony has vanished. Even the weather has gone mad. So much rain has fallen that the ancient temple of Candi Selogryo, after having withstood 1,200 rainy seasons, collapsed in a landslide three weeks ago. It never rains in Indonesia — it pours.

Respect for authority has vanished, as it always does after a dictator has been overthrown and his iron rule ended. Reformasi is fast becoming the rule of the mob. For too many people, it means doing exactly what they want. They have discovered that they now hold the power, but they do not yet know that power has responsibilities and obligations. You bear a grudge; you do not like a new price; you feel that one of your colleagues has been slighted. The solution is simple. You burn the shop, the factory, the police station. The army and the powers-that-be are too scared to act. They sit idly by in an ever-present haze of smoke.

The economic situation is dreadful. The rupiah is stronger because the government goes into the market every day and exchanges $30 million to $50 million worth of dollar-denominated loans. Yet many parents are taking their children out of school because they cannot afford the 10,000 rupiah ($1.25) to pay subsidized school fees for the term. Hoarding of essential goods is beginning again.

Corruption is worse than ever. The civil servants, and anyone else in a position to do so, engage in corruption because they would not survive otherwise. The rich and the powerful are lining their pockets with aid money again in case they have to make a run for it.

Indonesians have always been masters at borrowing money, using and abusing all the big countries — Russia, China, Germany, Japan, the United States and now the International Monetary Fund. And what has it meant for ordinary people?

During the fasting month of Ramadan, the political climate was more subdued. Everybody, even the students, restrained themselves. Traditionally, companies provide their workers with an annual allowance before the end of Ramadan. This year there was little or none, and the poorer people have no money.

There is much anger and frustration under the quiet exterior of enduring acceptance. If this anger is not released soon, we are in for a long, messy process of continual decline, and that might lead to a real civil war.

Remember that President Suharto's "New Order," in which power passed to a small group in the army and in the internal security organization, remains intact. His supporters do not want to change, whatever they may claim. Change means their political, economic and social suicide. They have a vested interest in a slow, socially disruptive but ultimately controllable period of bad news. This could persuade the people that the only answer is martial law and the postponement of the June elections.

But an eruption would create a general sense of malu (deep shame), encompassing all social classes, restoring peace and forcing change. It would be too strong for the ruling political elite to control by martial law. And I do not think the common soldiers can be counted on to fire on their own people; the soldiers all have family members who are suffering.

Out of all of this chaos and the subsequent sense of shame, the just king will emerge out of the cosmic light. I know this sounds as if I have gone mad, but this is Java. And we Javanese believe it in our souls, especially the philosophical intellectuals and the paranormals — the soothsayers, mystics and gurus.

The rumors are that this ratu adil is somewhere in a political jail. If his name comes out too early, he is a dead man.

The paranormals — now all of Java — talk about Sept. 9, 1999: A row of nines, the sacred number of Java. That is a big, big day to watch. It is when the real action is supposed to take place.

Stanley, my friend, this is crazy. Trying to analyze events in Java is impossible. Nobody knows what will happen. It is far too complicated. If one thinks about the reality, one just becomes confused. That is half the problem. No one is used to thinking, to having to take responsibility. We are all confused. It is Java.

But, although I sound incredibly pessimistic about the immediate future, I am totally optimistic about the long term for Indonesia. It is a country going through a bad dose of teenage years, acne-scarred and playing with drugs. That is all.

I replied to my friend: "Might it not be prudent, while waiting for the ratu adil, for President B.J. Habibie to turn power over to a neutral, unambitious caretaker, as a new constitution is being written? He would have to be someone respected by both Javanese and non-Javanese, the students, workers, the moderate Islamic organizations and the military."

Stanley A. Weiss is founder and chairman of Business Executives for National Security. The views he expresses are his own.